"We see that the new trade defense measures are having an effect, their mechanisms are sound and well-balanced. Imports are falling, and capacity utilization at European plants has improved," as Gunnar Groebler, CEO of Salzgitter AG, stated in his initial assessment. The European Steel Association (EUROFER) has also observed encouraging developments since the introduction of the new tariff quota. It is not that easy, however, to prove the effects with the respective data. The positive effects on steel production in Germany and Europe will actually be felt with a time lag due to the fact that companies brought their imports forward before the protective measures took effect: in the fourth quarter of 2025 in response to CBAM, and in the second quarter of 2026 due to the new tariff quota. As a result, companies have built up large inventories that now need to be reduced. The European Steel Association EUROFER expects apparent steel consumption to trend upwards by 0.1 percent in 2026 and by 2.3 percent in 2027. Even so, the association estimates that consumption is likely to be recorded at about seven million metric tons below the 2019 level. It remains difficult, however, to venture more accurate forecasts: There is simply not enough data available yet to provide a detailed understanding of how this trade defense measure is actually affecting crude steel production in the European steel industry. According to the EUROFER trade association, the fact that the European steel industry has restarted crude steel capacities of around 10 million tons in 2026 can be understood as a vote of confidence. EUROFER views the fact that European producers have made investment decisions totaling at least 3.4 billion euros as a further sign of stabilization.  

"Fears of shortages have not materialized, and there are no signs of supply bottlenecks on the market. Instead, we're seeing stronger demand for steel from Europe," says Gunnar Groebler. Europe has sufficient production capacity to meet the demand of steel customers, together with steel imports – even if demand would rise. This is because EU steel production facilities continue to operate at far too low capacity utilization. The European Steel Association EUROFER estimates that capacity utilization at European steel mills will stand at 67 percent (2026). In the case of flat steel, capacity utilization is about 69 percent, while the figure is stated at around 61 percent for long steel. In the heavy plate sector, demand stands at around 9 million metric tons, compared with a nominal capacity of 16 million metric tons. In Germany, the German Steel Association expects crude steel production to reach approximately 37 million metric tons this year, which is still below the 40-million-metric-ton threshold required for economically viable capacity utilization. Nevertheless, some of the plants that were shut down or had their output reduced are being brought back online. Since demand for steel is expected to only slightly trend upward in the medium term, no supply shortages are anticipated. 

Here's how the mechanism works: In the current fourth quarter of 2026, the new EU steel safeguard system reached its caps for key trading partners and product groups shortly after the start of the quarter. Turkey and China, for example used up their quotas very quickly, meaning that customs duties will be charged on any further imports. 

In order to prevent exporting countries from circumventing the quotas through evasion schemes (e.g., rerouting through third countries), the EU simultaneously introduced the so-called "Melt-and-Pour rule", which has been in effect since October 1. Importers must now specify and provide proof of the country in which the steel was smelted and cast. Mill test certificates, including the melt number, are regarded as standard documentation. Without this complete documentation, European customs authorities will refuse to allow steel imports. The EU aims to make the origin of steel more transparent and, in the future, to link quota consumption to the country of smelting, as required. That is why transparency is vital, and information about the actual origin of the steel must be published in a timely manner.